OCDE ve más fuerte economía mundial, pero los riesgos ocupan un lugar preponderante

30 de mayo de 2018

Publicado: OCDE

La economía mundial está experimentando un crecimiento más fuerte, impulsado por un rebote en el comercio, mayor inversión y la creación de empleo boyante, y apoyado por la política monetaria muy acomodaticia y distensión fiscal, según el último de la OCDE  Economic Outlook .

Se espera que el ritmo de expansión global durante el período 2018-19 a flotar cerca de 4%, lo que está cerca de la media a largo plazo. Sin embargo, el panorama también subraya que los riesgos significativos planteados por las tensiones comerciales, las vulnerabilidades de los mercados financieros y el aumento de los precios del petróleo ocupan un lugar preponderante, y aún queda mucho por hacer para garantizar una mejora fuerte y resistente a medio plazo en los niveles de vida.

Baja, aunque el aumento de las tasas de interés gradualmente junto con la flexibilización fiscal en muchos países continuarán sustenta la expansión, que verá subidas moderadas tanto en crecimiento de los salarios y la inflación. Se espera que el desempleo en la zona de la OCDE a caer a los niveles más bajos desde 1980, pero más se puede hacer para traer más gente a la fuerza de trabajo.

Real crecimiento del PIB

Año con año, %

“The economic expansion is set to continue for the coming two years, and the short-term growth outlook is more favourable than it has been for many years,” said OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria. “However, the current recovery is still being supported by very accommodative monetary policy, and increasingly by fiscal easing. This suggests that strong, self-sustaining growth has not yet been attained.”favourable than it has been for many years,” said OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria. “However, the current recovery is still being supported by very accommodative monetary policy, and increasingly by fiscal easing. This suggests that strong, self-sustaining growth has not yet been attained.”

“Policymakers need to put greater focus on structural policies to boost skills and to improve productivity to achieve strong, sustainable and inclusive growth,” Mr Gurria said.

The Outlook highlights a range of risks to the current expansion. Oil prices have risen significantly in the past year, and, if sustained, could add to inflation while softening real household income growth. The threat of trade restrictions has begun to adversely affect confidence, and, if such measures were implemented, they would negatively influence investment and jobs.

Risks also remain that the normalisation of interest rates in some economies, notably the United States, could expose financial vulnerabilities and tensions created by elevated risk-taking in financial markets and high debt, especially in emerging market economies with high levels of foreign currency debt. Procyclical fiscal easing exacerbates these risks.

The Outlook calls for reforms to be stepped up, against the background of favourable short-term conditions and the need to secure more robust and more inclusive growth. It urges countries to boost investment in education and skills, as part of improvements in the use of tax and spending policies to raise living standards across the income distribution. It recommends policies to boost job creation and business dynamism in the economy, including improvements to digital and physical infrastructure, enhanced R&D collaboration between universities and industry, reduced barriers to entry in professional services sectors and less red tape.favourable short-term conditions and the need to secure more robust and more inclusive growth. It urges countries to boost investment in education and skills, as part of improvements in the use of tax and spending policies to raise living standards across the income distribution. It recommends policies to boost job creation and business dynamism in the economy, including improvements to digital and physical infrastructure, enhanced R&D collaboration between universities and industry, reduced barriers to entry in professional services sectors and less red tape.

http://www.oecd.org/newsroom/oecd-sees-stronger-world-economy-but-risks-loom-large.htm

 

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